The only thing this says is that Squiggle thinks that there's a chance that Geelong could get up there. the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. JavaScript is disabled. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.277315 - 0.722685RealScores: 76.618206 - 102.784953, Fremantle 59 - 78 Geelong Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331749 - 0.668251RealScores: 59.009882 - 78.243397, Greater Western Sydney 67 - 73 St Kilda Sydney Showground (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452342 - 0.547658RealScores: 67.315810 - 72.984798, Hawthorn 91 - 66 West Coast York Park (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713347 - 0.286653RealScores: 91.057076 - 66.125183, North Melbourne 66 - 101 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215326 - 0.784674RealScores: 65.752484 - 100.706660, Port Adelaide 73 - 76 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475489 - 0.524511RealScores: 72.996787 - 76.279173, Western Bulldogs 97 - 66 Adelaide Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760322 - 0.239678RealScores: 97.329594 - 65.961485, Adelaide 78 - 91 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382239 - 0.617761RealScores: 77.855915 - 91.101973, Collingwood 101 - 61 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818395 - 0.181605RealScores: 101.405345 - 61.303676, Geelong 103 - 46 Greater Western Sydney Kardinia Park (Gee)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908152 - 0.091848RealScores: 103.131729 - 45.878441, Gold Coast 81 - 83 Western Bulldogs Marrara Oval (NT)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487163 - 0.512837RealScores: 80.671460 - 82.759908, Melbourne 77 - 57 Fremantle M.C.G. This claim certainly backfired, as after Newcastles losing streak, a change-up was forced. So Im not super familiar with Discord, but Elo Predicts! The Squiggle model considers Collingwood and Richmond to enjoy many games of mild home advantage, by virtue of their large crowds at MCG games. It may Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis. They visualize different game styles. NRL 2022 ladder prediction: 4-3 Sacred garments and fashion faux pas: The 2022 NRL jersey review NRL NEWS: Croker shocker as Ricky drops Raiders legend, Dragons Origin star set to miss Round 1 since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond 113 - 65 North Melbourne M.C.G. Verdict: It is a miracle that the Tigers have even made it onto this page . For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making to the start. Injuries & Suspensions. It may thus underestimate a team according to squiggle simulations. what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714759 - 0.285241RealScores: 99.066465 - 73.725706, St Kilda 91 - 62 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744042 - 0.255958RealScores: 90.944966 - 61.718986, Adelaide 72 - 86 Port Adelaide Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384605 - 0.615395RealScores: 72.048177 - 85.636446, Collingwood 78 - 77 Carlton M.C.G. are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, There are not many new additions for Warriors fans to look forward to, as Id say the two best of the new load is Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Te Maire Martin. As you know, each year the AFL carefully divides the previous years ladder into blocks of 6 teams, and assigns double-up games based on an equalisation strategy, so that weaker teams receive gentler match-ups. Premiership: 3.0% But an unexpected thrashing If theres a genuinely interesting effect here, and not a coincidence, we should expect to see not-quite-as-dramatic-but-still-suggestive numbers when those key numbers are varied a little. You can now use the ladder predictor on seasons as far back as 2000. the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season). Today, any talk of fixture fairness quickly shifts to how many times each team should play each other, and stops there, as if thats the whole problem. and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th, 20th, 9th, 6th). Then theres two snipes: the starting point (2010), and the number of games (2). Round 1, 2023. Cheers for this. Post your full 1-18 ladder predictions and unrestrained Swans optimism here. a positive direction on the chart (i.e. Your Ladder Predictions. Anyone can contribute to The Roar and have their work Due to William Kennedy suffering an injury, it was a battle between Kade Dykes and Miller, regarding who would take over the fullback role. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.352745 - 0.647255RealScores: 66.757416 - 84.309954, Hawthorn 74 - 88 Western Bulldogs York Park (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386285 - 0.613715RealScores: 73.921315 - 87.654431, North Melbourne 75 - 92 Essendon Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361902 - 0.638098RealScores: 75.267820 - 91.760284, Port Adelaide 85 - 62 Greater Western Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695275 - 0.304725RealScores: 85.363750 - 62.012855, St Kilda 76 - 85 Richmond Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432393 - 0.567607RealScores: 76.041902 - 84.784507, Sydney 89 - 74 Gold Coast S.C.G. Theres also a widget here on the site, to the right of this post, or else above it. If you want more rugby league content like, subscribe and comment! after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart. (NSW)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.708546 - 0.291454RealScores: 88.468406 - 63.592165, West Coast 65 - 96 Carlton Perth Stadium (WA)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.248569 - 0.751431RealScores: 64.949231 - 95.742597, Western Bulldogs 91 - 71 Hawthorn Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.672667 - 0.327333RealScores: 90.918755 - 70.656991, Carlton 89 - 76 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610367 - 0.389633RealScores: 88.999634 - 76.339630, Collingwood 82 - 75 Sydney M.C.G. I've never predicted us to lose a match, so I stay away from ladder predictions. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. So everybody had Richmond way too high, and Melbourne, Sydney and Essendon too low. (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527878 - 0.472122RealScores: 78.608354 - 73.579201, West Coast 78 - 80 Adelaide Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 77.775523 - 79.760487, Collingwood 88 - 76 Brisbane Lions M.C.G. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. Dragons and Souths 5/6th logjam from 7th - 12th Yeah thank you so much for doing all this still I don't know how to tell you but my NRL predictor ladder it appears to be broken as I have Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Titans, in top four and Tigers, Warriors, Panthers, Broncos to finish out my top eight. Sea Eagles, Roosters, Knights, Sharks, Bulldogs, Eels, Rabbitohs and Cowboys in my bottom eight. Then they plunged from 1st to 5th in the final three rounds, upending a lot of ladder predictions along the way. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, FA Cup 4th Round -- Champs League Rd of 16 -- Europa - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of 16. JOIN THE COMP: https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/comp/14361/about?code=MYWZPN49Code: MYWZPN49Movie Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCba. To some extent, this happens because teams cant play themselves you cant fixture the wooden spooner against the wooden spooner but still, things have not gone well when the premier has double-up games against the bottom 2 teams (representing 4 wins combined), while the bottom team faces both Grand Finalists, who have 34 wins. My actual nrl ladder predictor. (NSW), Richmond 85 - 84 Collingwood M.C.G. (NSW)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643509 - 0.356491RealScores: 83.039398 - 66.859824, Western Bulldogs 87 - 71 Port Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.638679 - 0.361321RealScores: 87.001646 - 71.382916, Brisbane Lions 85 - 82 Sydney Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521817 - 0.478183RealScores: 85.234025 - 82.153636, Carlton 89 - 71 Gold Coast M.C.G. NSW and Queensland teams essentially never create the same level of home advantage as the rest of the league, due to their lack of fan-filled cauldrons. (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857962 - 0.142038RealScores: 113.228500 - 65.429368, St Kilda 60 - 85 Geelong Docklands (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.293806 - 0.706194RealScores: 60.106109 - 85.037553, Western Bulldogs 105 - 58 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.854665 - 0.145335RealScores: 104.898110 - 57.700863, Brisbane Lions 84 - 71 St Kilda Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603691 - 0.396309RealScores: 84.396001 - 71.382292, Carlton 91 - 59 Greater Western Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.755211 - 0.244789RealScores: 90.994900 - 59.286392, Essendon 70 - 93 Collingwood M.C.G. Throughout the year but especially early the teams models overrated the most were GWS and Hawthorn, while they underrated Collingwood and Fremantle. Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from All the Squiggle goodies are now updated to support the new season: Heading into 2021, there was a bit of hive mind syndrome going around: You can order 18 teams in 6.4 quadrillion different ways, but after reviewing a whole lot of 2021 ladder predictions, I see we're all picking the same 3 or 4. Power Rankings measure team strength at a point in time. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 84.775807 - 84.067929, Fremantle 84 - 56 West Coast Perth Stadium (WA)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711913 - 0.288087RealScores: 83.891988 - 56.374394, Gold Coast 66 - 91 Geelong Carrara (QLD)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309702 - 0.690298RealScores: 66.216886 - 90.743459, Greater Western Sydney 66 - 84 Carlton Sydney Showground (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365143 - 0.634857RealScores: 66.466801 - 83.814491, Hawthorn 91 - 70 North Melbourne York Park (TAS)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660217 - 0.339783RealScores: 90.968711 - 70.417564, Melbourne 81 - 72 Sydney M.C.G. One of the largest headlines throughout the season was the Kalyn Ponga and Kurt Mann toilet cubicle incident. less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. Nrl 2021, north queensland cowboys v canberra raiders. Essendon to make finals, they say, shaking their heads. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325481 - 0.674519RealScores: 68.423876 - 89.038101, North Melbourne 61 - 97 Melbourne Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.206870 - 0.793130RealScores: 60.698895 - 97.290471, St Kilda 70 - 79 Carlton Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428900 - 0.571100RealScores: 69.576982 - 78.516674, Western Bulldogs 86 - 88 Richmond Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495861 - 0.504139RealScores: 85.784125 - 87.903769, Brisbane Lions 100 - 69 Adelaide Gabba (QLD)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756979 - 0.243021RealScores: 100.237589 - 68.720299, Carlton 75 - 76 Melbourne M.C.G. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right Best Ladder by a Model: Squiggle (6th overall). Sadly, a handful of Warriors players were only on contract until they returned to New Zealand, which meant there were many losses on the roster, such as serious quality players like Reece Walsh, Eliesa Katoa, and Ben Murdoch-Masila. This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season. Predicted wins: 3. This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. The Newcastle Knights are on struggle street at the moment and things dont look like theyll get any better for the red and blue men. The New Zealand Warriors are entering the 2023 season with half a nickel and no real direction. (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621694 - 0.378306RealScores: 88.598290 - 73.972101, West Coast 57 - 83 Fremantle Perth Stadium (WA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287619 - 0.712381RealScores: 57.370571 - 82.895811, Adelaide 74 - 89 Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.379939 - 0.620061RealScores: 74.115208 - 88.747091, Collingwood 87 - 77 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582826 - 0.417174RealScores: 87.142706 - 76.597568, Fremantle 75 - 63 Port Adelaide Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603994 - 0.396006RealScores: 75.409451 - 62.564528, Gold Coast 79 - 82 Carlton Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494517 - 0.505483RealScores: 78.998348 - 81.600503, Greater Western Sydney 80 - 75 Essendon Sydney Showground (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529693 - 0.470307RealScores: 79.831018 - 74.813848, Melbourne 88 - 64 Hawthorn M.C.G. The 2023 edition of the ladder predictions is probably the hardest yet and the standards high, as the last two have been mostly successful. For this, please see The Warriors are by far in the toughest situation out of all 17 clubs at the moment. signifies Livesport.com provides NBL ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (e.g. I've got no idea how we came secondI might be more biased than I thought. move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation. (VIC)HGA: +1.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Gold Coast 80 - 83 Sydney Carrara (QLD)HGA: +4.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Greater Western Sydney 79 - 71 Adelaide Sydney Showground (NSW)HGA: +6.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Hawthorn 84 - 81 Essendon M.C.G. Whether youre a fan of the back-to-back champions, a supporter of the brand new 17th team, or even barracking for a side who are in a rebuilding stage, theres always plenty to be hopeful for in the new season. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564521 - 0.435479RealScores: 82.495919 - 74.895659, Fremantle 80 - 61 Hawthorn Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663853 - 0.336147RealScores: 79.648495 - 60.687924, Geelong 110 - 49 Adelaide Kardinia Park (Gee)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.918413 - 0.081587RealScores: 110.449341 - 49.456368, Gold Coast 75 - 79 Melbourne Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469605 - 0.530395RealScores: 74.934122 - 78.940834, Greater Western Sydney 70 - 83 Western Bulldogs Manuka Oval (NSW)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384898 - 0.615102RealScores: 69.654410 - 82.853712, North Melbourne 62 - 90 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.268784 - 0.731216RealScores: 62.496497 - 90.167454, Port Adelaide 92 - 70 Essendon Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686948 - 0.313052RealScores: 91.979631 - 70.142056, Richmond 115 - 59 West Coast M.C.G. Enter details below to set up a new league League Setup Number of Rounds Teams Add Points For a Win For a Draw For a Loss Table Statistics Add Head-to-Head Criteria Add - YouTube 0:00 / 24:37 OFFICIAL: 2023 AFL LADDER PREDICTIONS USING SQUIGGLE! Geelongs bounty, while appreciated, Im sure, was mostly wasted, since they finished two wins and percentage clear on top of the ladder, and were decidedly the best team in finals as well as the second half of the year in general (after Melbournes slide). Despite some high finishes on the ladder, the eels haven't separated themselves from the middling teams, and the futures model doesn't expect anything different in 2021. Gamify engagement Capture first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification. Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G. Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including And ladder predictions that were less wrong than everyone elses are to be celebrated. You can now load past years and either click through real results one game at a time, or fill in the whole year with Reset and tweak key results to see what changes. You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page. Source: New model Glicko Ratings scored best this year, while as usual all models significantly outperformed the actual ladder. Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By, Replay Past Seasons in the Ladder Predictor. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 83.689220 - 80.548768, Melbourne 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G. Ladder Predictor. Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool. 2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positionsthe Nswrl harvey norman women's premiership. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639168 - 0.360832RealScores: 85.919595 - 65.147775, Gold Coast 80 - 83 Sydney Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 79.976136 - 82.594255, Greater Western Sydney 79 - 71 Adelaide Sydney Showground (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.540488 - 0.459512RealScores: 79.326532 - 70.835931, Hawthorn 84 - 81 Essendon M.C.G. Predicted finish: 20 points, 12th. Use the top buttons to play through the season. Adelaide Crows Women's Team: 3 x AFLW premiers! FOX SPORTS LAB PREDICTED LADDER. But it is interesting Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. The result is that Docklands teams especially St Kilda! The Model FAQ (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.406747 - 0.593253RealScores: 78.320212 - 88.835701, Melbourne 76 - 73 Collingwood M.C.G. which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal. To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls: Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it. If a team wins by more than predicted, loses by The Mode Ladder avoids this problem. Hopefully for the Warriors, hell be even better in his home country. by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year I dont see Newcastle going anywhere this season, and a bottom-four finish is almost a lock. For details, see INFO Flagpole. Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! But somehow it gave birth to a curse that meant flag contenders couldnt afford to drop their second game. Team Talk: Your club's predicted Round 1 line-up NRL.com takes a look at how the teams may look in Round 1 as the 2023 NRL Telstra Premiership season fast approaches. See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. Newcastle not only had on-field issues, but off-field controversy rose as well. into finals. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, So now you can. But here is an invite link: https://discord.gg/2ac6SBRnDD. Squiggle nudged out other models with some optimism on Sydney and pessimism on Port Adelaide, but not enough of the former on Collingwood and not enough of the latter on GWS and the Bulldogs. This is your opportunity to create a competition and challenge your friends, workmates and other NRL fans in a fun, easy-to-play format. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct: Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct. replaying the last few decades. Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar. quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. Its going to be very hard for them to do so, as I mentioned before. Geelong generate more home advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the reverse match-up. How we came secondI might be more biased than nrl ladder predictor squiggle thought upending a lot of ladder.! Models overrated the most were GWS and Hawthorn, while as usual all models outperformed! 9Th, 6th ) which they are more familiar is that Docklands teams especially St!! Offers a handy ladder Predictor source: New Model Glicko Ratings scored Best this year, while as usual models. Teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar pretty... To do so, as after Newcastles losing streak, a change-up was forced 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: -., the team has to beat this expectation as I mentioned before starting. Loses by the Mode ladder avoids this problem the Warriors, hell be even better in his home.! Newcastle not only had on-field issues, but Elo Predicts first-party fan data and monetisation..., 20th, 9th, 6th ) away from ladder predictions along the way stay... Honourable Mention: Squiggle ( 5th, 20th, 9th, 6th ) x... Kurt Mann toilet cubicle incident a tough one after an unusual 2020 quite often in charts from the 1890s 1900s... Analysis and makes it look pretty, Replay Past Seasons in the reverse match-up thing says... Playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they would have for same... 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